Sustainability in a world growing in uncertainty
The What
Risks and Opportunities: Optimising performance and unlocking and allocating resources
ahead of less resilient competitors.
- 22 October 2025
This event is the second in a three-part Webinar series
This session acts as the bridge between “The Why”, understanding the drivers of change, and “The How”, navigating long-term implementation.
It is designed to empower organisations to move beyond recognition of uncertainty toward decisive, tactical action that ensures both adaptability and sustainable performance.
Expert guests examine what specific actions and frameworks are required to scope transformation needs, prioritise initiatives, and align resources across financial, human, natural, and technological domains. The session highlights the shortcomings of siloed approaches and equips leaders with insights into integrated, enterprise-wide strategies that enable coordinated responses.
In collaboration with:
In Brief
Background
In today’s rapidly evolving global landscape, organisations are under increasing pressure to adapt to rising levels of uncertainty, from climate change and geopolitical instability to shifting regulatory demands and supply chain disruptions. These complex forces directly impact the availability, accessibility, and allocation of critical resources, financial, natural, human, and technological.
Understanding what to do, what to plan, what organisational teams to get ready is the second step (the why is the first) in building organisational resilience and ensuring sustainable performance. Without a clear grasp of the organisational frameworks, directives, and enterprise processes (systems) which need to be in place leads to strategic missteps and operational weaknesses which will be exposed by more adaptive competitors.
Short Explainer
Hear from our speakers
Questions and Answers
Panelists emphasized that organizations can take several clear, immediate actions. The global stocktake under the Paris Agreement identifies two of the most significant levers available between now and 2030:
- Massive Deployment of Renewable Power: A primary focus should be on accelerating the adoption of renewables like solar and wind. This is not only a cost-effective generation strategy but, critically, a geopolitical and risk management one. In the face of shocks like the war in Ukraine and the resulting disruption to fossil fuel-based power systems, renewables offer enhanced energy security and insulation from extreme price volatility. As one panelist noted, “no country can hijack your wind or your sun.”
- Strategic Focus on Energy Efficiency: Beyond simple conservation, this involves a fundamental transformation in how power is used. A key strategy is the large-scale electrification of systems, particularly in transport and mobility, where the lifetime ownership costs of electric vehicles are now highly competitive. For many countries, adopting minimum energy efficiency performance standards for products is a critical, cost-effective step, as these products are often available at a similar cost, are cheaper to run, and can be powered by renewables.
Finally, organizations were challenged to adopt a powerful strategic filter for all major decisions. For every investment and operational choice, leaders should ask: “How well will we function and thrive as an organization in a two-degree world?” Posing this question is designed to expose critical vulnerabilities in an organization’s operating model and supply chain, guiding the necessary planning to build genuine long-term resilience.
How should businesses approach sustainability-related risks and opportunities in an uncertain world?
The key is to recognize that global uncertainty spills over into all the resources an organization depends on, often in unexpected ways. A single shock, such as an extreme climate event, doesn’t remain an isolated “environmental risk”; it can destabilize supply chains, impact communities and employees, and ultimately affect financial performance. Resilient organizations pay close attention to how these shocks interact across different business areas, as fragility often appears in the spaces between traditional silos.
Crucially, risks and opportunities should be viewed as two sides of the same coin, a spectrum of potential outcomes. A disruption in one area can spark innovation and create new value in another. For example, in parts of Africa, widespread energy insecurity (a risk) has accelerated investment in renewable energy projects that bypass fragile national grids. What began as a major disruption has created an opportunity to “leapfrog old systems” and build a more resilient energy infrastructure.
The essential mindset for a resilient organization is the ability to see this entire spectrum. Leaders must ask two complementary questions:
- “Where can disruptions erode our resilience?”
- “Where can they spark new value?” The ability to analyze both the downside and the upside is what will set thriving organizations apart in an era of uncertainty.
In a modern, interconnected world, interdependencies have become more complex and often more opaque. A “systems thinking” approach is crucial because it compels an organization to actively map its dependencies on natural capital, its supply chains, and the communities it operates within. This process uncovers hidden vulnerabilities and opportunities that a siloed approach would miss.
The panelists provided two practical examples to illustrate this concept:
- The Ambulance Service: An ambulance service’s core purpose is to save lives by arriving on the scene of an emergency as quickly as possible. By taking a systems view, the service identified that its operational area was subject to increasing flood risk, which could cut off critical routes and prevent it from fulfilling its mission. Understanding this system-level vulnerability allowed the organization to proactively plan alternative routes in advance, ensuring it could maintain operational resilience even during an extreme weather event.
- Nescafe: Nescafe committed $1 billion to support regenerative agriculture among the coffee bean growers in its supply chain. This was not merely a philanthropic or reputational initiative; it was a core business resilience strategy. The company recognized its deep system-level dependency on a stable supply of coffee beans, which was directly threatened by the impacts of climate change on growers. Without coffee beans, the business is worth “absolute zero.” By financing the transition to more resilient agricultural practices, Nescafe is securing its most critical raw material and, therefore, its own long-term future.
The definition of business performance is undergoing a necessary and fundamental shift. The old model, which measured performance almost exclusively in narrow financial terms, is no longer sufficient.
Today, performance is a much broader concept that must integrate a range of non-financial factors that underpin long-term value creation. These include:
- People: The well-being, skills, and engagement of the workforce.
- Technology: The organization’s capacity for innovation and adaptation.
- Relationships: The strength of connections with suppliers, customers, and communities.
- Natural Systems: The health and stability of the ecosystems the business depends on.
A company might report strong quarterly profits, but if its workforce is exhausted or its supply chain is fragile, that financial performance masks significant underlying risks and is not sustainable.
This evolution also changes how resource allocation is approached. The focus is moving away from making short-term, siloed trade-offs (e.g., cutting costs at the expense of employee well-being) toward making integrated choices that weigh risks and opportunities together. This mindset forces leaders to ask which risks they must mitigate and which opportunities they should bet on to build resilience and create lasting value.
Navigating the sustainability transition requires a holistic approach to workforce development, combining technical knowledge with essential “soft skills.” Panelists identified three key areas for capability building:
- Specialist Skills for the Core Team: It is essential to upskill the dedicated sustainability professionals who lead the organization’s strategy and implementation.
- General Awareness for All Employees: Providing a baseline understanding of key sustainability issues to the entire workforce creates a common language and foundation for change. One panelist cited a corporate partner that successfully trained 72,000 employees with a basic sustainability awareness program, receiving overwhelmingly positive feedback and creating a more engaged culture.
- Role-Specific Development: Sustainability must be integrated directly into different job functions. This may involve:
Applying New Knowledge: A procurement professional, for example, needs to learn how to evaluate suppliers based on carbon and other sustainability criteria alongside traditional metrics like cost and quality.
Using New Skills: A product designer may need to be trained on using new tools, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) software, to evaluate the environmental impact of different material choices.
Furthermore, as highlighted by Tim La Touche, cultivating “soft skills” is critical. In an uncertain and rapidly changing environment, the ability of employees to learn new things and foster high levels of collaboration are essential competencies. Solutions to complex sustainability challenges cannot be solved by one person or department; they require partnership and a multifaceted approach.
The single most important characteristic of a resilient and successful organization is agility. This is defined as the ability to act and make decisions without waiting for perfect information.
Organizations that are likely to fall behind in this transition often default to a defensive posture. They react to uncertainty by cutting costs, protecting today’s financial performance at all costs, and delaying important decisions until the future feels clearer. While this may provide a sense of short-term stability, it severely limits their ability to adapt when major shocks arrive.
In contrast, agile organizations move forward even when the future is uncertain. A clear example emerged during the pandemic, where companies that quickly repurposed their supply chains or accelerated their digitalization efforts rebounded much faster than those that waited. Today, agile organizations are using climate pressures and regulatory changes as a catalyst to reimagine their business models, rather than resisting change until it is unavoidable. By embedding sustainability into their response to disruption, they turn potential threats into a source of competitive advantage.
The panelists recommended several practical tools and frameworks to help organizations assess their position and plan their next steps:
- Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) & Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD): These frameworks are powerful tools for engaging finance teams. They provide a structure for translating climate and nature dependencies into financial metrics that leaders understand, such as impacts on cash flow, income, and asset value.
- “How are all jobs greener” Toolkit: This self-assessment tool, developed by ISEP and Deloitte, helps organizations benchmark their maturity and readiness for the sustainability transition across different functions. It is designed to spark internal conversation and build a common understanding of where the gaps and opportunities lie.
- The Capitals Coalition Protocols: These protocols offer a practical methodology for understanding how uncertainty affects an organization’s dependencies on natural, human, and social capital. They help bring these crucial insights into everyday decision-making, especially when resources are scarce.
- B Corp Impact Assessment: This is a free online tool that allows a company to holistically assess its sustainable impact across a wide range of issues. It is aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and can help identify areas of strength and weakness.
Guests
Glossary of Key Terms
Term | Definition |
Agility | The ability of an organization to act and make decisions without waiting for perfect or complete information. It involves moving forward even when the future is uncertain and turning disruption into a competitive edge. |
Article 6 Mechanisms | A set of rules approved at COP29 related to carbon markets, particularly the voluntary carbon markets, designed to facilitate the flow of climate finance into projects in developing countries. |
B Corp Impact Assessment | A free online tool recommended by Tim La Touche that helps organizations consider sustainable issues holistically, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals, and identify potential areas of uncertainty. |
Capitals Coalition Protocols | A practical framework recommended by Lebogang Senne that helps organizations understand how uncertainty affects natural, human, and social capital. It provides a structured way to surface risks and opportunities across these different capitals to inform decision-making. |
ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) | A framework used to assess a company’s performance on a broad range of sustainability topics beyond traditional financial metrics. Peadar Duffy notes that ESG ratings are often attached to corporate credit ratings. |
Global Stocktake | A process under the Paris Agreement to assess collective progress towards achieving the agreement’s long-term goals. Martin Baxter notes it was clear on the actions needed by 2030, particularly on renewable energy and energy efficiency. |
“How are all jobs greener” Toolkit | A tool developed by ISEP and Deloitte, recommended by Martin Baxter. It allows an organization to benchmark its readiness to address sustainability challenges on a maturity matrix, helping to identify varying perspectives and develop a common understanding. |
ISO 14001 | An international standard that specifies requirements for an effective environmental management system (EMS). Martin Baxter chairs the ISO group responsible for this standard. |
Just Transition | A concept mentioned in the context of the shift away from fossil fuels (like the Montana coal auction collapse). The discussion implies its meaning differs between the Global North and the Global South. |
Natural Capital | The world’s stock of natural assets, which include geology, soil, air, water, and all living things. Martin Baxter emphasizes the need for organizations to map their interdependencies with natural capital. |
Regenerative Agriculture | An approach to farming that aims to improve and restore ecosystem health, particularly soil health. Nescafe invested $1 billion in this practice to secure its coffee bean supply chain against climate impacts. |
Systems Thinking | An approach to problem-solving that views “problems” as parts of an overall system, rather than reacting to specific parts or outcomes. In business, it involves mapping complex interdependencies (with nature, supply chains, politics, etc.) to understand vulnerabilities and opportunities. |
TCFD (Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures) | A framework recommended by Martin Baxter that helps organizations understand and disclose their climate-related risks and opportunities in financial terms. It provides a way to translate climate dependencies into impacts on cash flow, income, and asset value. |
TNFD (Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures) | A framework, mentioned alongside TCFD, for organizations to report and act on evolving nature-related dependencies, risks, and opportunities. |
Tragedy of the Horizon | A phrase used by Martin Baxter to describe a core business challenge where the focus on dealing with short-term pressures prevents organizations from allocating resources to address known, long-term threats until it is too late. |
